An estimated five million people will be impacted by the six week long widespread response to Victoria’s rising COVID-19 infection numbers.

Before this most recent response we used Defin’d data to look at the 12 locked down postcodes, considering the number of people that resided in the postcodes, where they work and conversely the number of people that work in one of the 12 postcodes and where they commuted from.

What our analysis showed is that typically many thousands of people leave the hotspot postcodes to go to work in other parts of Melbourne. Surprisingly many thousands also travel to work in the hotspots from outside these areas.

Our June motor injuries insights d'finitive quoted data from Apple that suggests mobility had returned to 80% of normal levels.  So Melbournians are back to being quite mobile in cars.

The insights from our commuters origin-destination analysis shows over June and into July people moving around hotspot postcodes were likely doing so for work.

 

Melbourne Mobility Trends since 13 January 2020

Source: https://www.apple.com/covid19/mobility

Around 130,000 people typically travel outside of their hotspot residential postcode to go to work; of those 20,000 travel to the city leaving over 100,000 that travel to other mostly northern and western suburbs for work (top map).  In addition, 55,000 people travel in to one of the hotspot postcodes (bottom map).

Our interactive map allows you to select individual hotspot postcodes and subject to a minimum of 50 commuters show maps of where people are travelling from and to.  You can also select the industry the commuter works in and gender (again subject to minimum numbers).  Finally, you can toggle the lockdown effect on or off which has been calculated based on ABS data.

How can this help?

Using information such as this can perhaps provide an indicator of regions that are at higher risk of COVID case numbers due to population mobility, in this case of workers.

Given there is such a high rate of transit beyond the bordering postcodes, policy makers can look to surrounding areas for the next potential hotspots, and potential to creep into regional Victoria.

Commuting out of and in to Melbourne hotspot postcodes

The analysis attempted to allow for the effects of changes in working arrangements that have emerged to date by modifying the estimated number of people still going to work.  However, reliable data on the population working from home was not available and therefore mobility due to commuting may be significantly overstated.

Weekly Payroll Jobs and Wages in Australia, Week ending 13 June 2020

Source: https://www.abs.gov.au

Active cases by LGA

Source: Vic Govt

Contact us to discuss these insights further

Aaron Cutter

Aaron Cutter

Ph +61 2 8252 3321
Mobile +61 417 527 204
aaron.cutter@finity.com.au